Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 25.028498 28.455790 32.144870 36.406626 41.189877 46.388277 52.461383
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 19.843034 24.475100 29.840357 36.496876 44.515744 53.845410 65.503428
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 16.969775 22.057843 28.234577 36.253096 46.352723 58.614022 74.587312
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 15.007587 20.430218 27.290187 36.555004 48.684122 63.959459 84.583295
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 13.838629 19.601702 27.154167 37.703615 51.973840 70.509589 96.296670
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.344401 18.148770 26.010587 37.342000 53.141825 74.257656 104.454130
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.610109 16.168084 23.938268 35.478101 52.039034 74.777199 108.148890
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.958925 15.660959 23.856617 36.350549 54.735336 80.573776 119.354220
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.408993 15.240606 23.843329 37.282037 57.523561 86.594397 131.139505
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.631155 14.395378 23.119355 37.078229 58.588379 90.140625 139.471634
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.871535 13.506539 22.249291 36.565932 59.117067 92.873275 146.676818
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.345040 12.943575 21.834041 36.710748 60.627707 97.107581 156.298197
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.937217 12.554609 21.684011 37.292100 62.897539 102.684116 168.383280
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.496471 12.072254 21.344636 37.537451 64.637204 107.520787 179.563744
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.001017 11.447827 20.713800 37.237708 65.438753 110.869720 188.487455
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.661953 11.070683 20.470072 37.563445 67.274573 115.940720 200.394782
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 5.489558 10.981176 20.714141 38.736086 70.591200 123.569458 216.828161
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.091883 10.436599 20.109685 38.367000 71.216807 126.735211 225.947371
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.508570 9.486680 18.701537 36.454874 69.010899 124.985061 226.627026
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.360691 9.374775 18.828636 37.349831 71.842710 131.977667 242.599641
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.229192 9.283996 18.986406 38.305063 74.823971 139.350490 259.540500
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.962870 8.895779 18.546363 38.096070 75.641840 142.931727 269.932584
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 3.680872 8.450941 17.963661 37.570676 75.828757 145.375426 278.373591